I've discovered the perfect predictor for the knock-out stage of the FIFA world cup
Group A supports same-sex marriage.
Group B offers civil unions, registered partnerships or some other kind of recognition to same-sex couples.
Group C offers no recognition to same-sex couples at all, atleast not on a national level.
: Netherlands, Spain, PortugalGROUP B
: Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, EnglandGROUP C
: South Korea, United States, Ghana, Slovakia, Chile, Paraguay, Japan
A defeats B or C: (Netherlands-Brazil, Netherlands-Uruguay, Spain-Germany, Netherlands-Slovakia, Spain-Paraguay)
B defeats C: (Uruguay-S.Korea, Brazil-Chile, Argentina-Mexico, Uruguay-Ghana)
When (A) faces (A) or (B) faces (B), earliest recognition means victory.
So Spain (SSM since 2005) defeated Portugal (SSM since 2010) and Germany (registered partnerships since 2001) defeated England (civil partnerships since 2005) and Argentina (unregistered cohabitation since 2008)
This gives us the world cup winner: Netherland (SSM since 2001) rather than Spain (SSM since 2005).
It also proves beyond a doubt that the God of Soccer supports same-sex marriage.